• Call/Text: (813) 784-7744
    • Send Me an Email

The Tampa Real Estate InsiderThe Tampa Real Estate Insider

South Tampa Realtor

  • Menu
  • Home
  • Meet Rae
  • Search
    • Advanced Search
    • Map Search
    • Listing ID Search
    • Address Search
    • Browse by City
    • My Account
  • Buyers
    • Buying With Me
    • Featured Properties
    • Mortgage Calculator
    • My Listing Manager
  • Sellers
    • Selling With Me
    • Sold Portfolio
    • FREE Home Valuation
  • Communities
    • Channelside District
    • Downtown Tampa
    • South Tampa
    • Seminole Heights | Tampa Heights
    • Gulf Beach Area | St. Petersburg | Clearwater
    • Westshore Marina District
    • Downtown St. Pete
    • Cheval Golf Community
  • TREI Blog
  • Get in Touch
  • Rave Reviews

Real Estate Market Downturn Nearing End? Tampa, Fl


Real Estate Market Downturn Nearing End?

The increase in unsold listings was this cycle’s early warning indicator, the economist points out. And a decline will be the sign that the market is rebalancing itself. Real estate consultant, John Burns, says “The supply problem will be resolved when the market returns to 2.5 months of supply in the resale market, and only a few standing units of inventory in a typical new home subdivision,” he says. In a sales meeting yesterday, speaker Patrick Ferry told us that the Tampa Bay Area has a 8-10 month supply of homes on the market.

The correction “could take years” in outlying areas. In built-out markets such as San Diego, over-supply is “likely to correct earlier” than in sprawling markets like Phoenix. But economic growth will “play a huge role as well,” and help many markets recover sooner.

Home builders have already corrected for their share of the over-supply. During the boom years, builders overbuilt the market on a national basis by about 15 percent, he wrote. Last year’s construction pace was at about 2.3 million units, but the rate has already slowed to 1.8 million, which is less than the 1.9 million to 2.1 million units a year that are needed to satisfy the demographics of the housing market.

The housing economist told his clients to worry more about the location and price of the oversupply than the overall number itself. The Nation’s Capital is one example where location and price matter more. In the Washington metro area, a healthy ratio of 2.2 jobs were created for every new housing start. Unfortunately, most of the development is occurring outside the market’s main employment centers. And D.C. is not alone. In Phoenix, the largest number of resale houses on the market are on the outskirts of town, which is exactly where home builders are most active. And construction in Tampa, Orlando and Sacramento, to name just a few places, is most active far away from where the jobs are.

The investment leg of the stool is the wild card. Demand is strong, just not at current prices, he says. “Affordability is an issue in the major markets, but not everywhere.”

On the other hand, consumer confidence is strong. In fact, it hasn’t been an issue, at least not like it has been in previous down cycles, largely because most folks are secure in their jobs, the housing consultant says.

But speculators remain a bugaboo. At the height of the market, Burns says, “an unprecedented level of investors created 40 percent more sales activity” than should normally have been created. Now, we have to wait and see how they will react. Will they hold until the market turns more favorable, or will they panic and sell at any price just to be over and done with it?

As in politics, all housing markets are local. But if you are watching the national numbers, Burns concludes that 5.6 million total sales — both new and used — is indicative of a normal level of demand.

In June 2005, the annual rate reached 8.5 million. But it has already slowed to 7.3 million. Unfortunately, he believes the market will need to over-correct to below the 5.6 million benchmark because of affordability problems and the huge number of investors before it can right itself and begin heading north again.

If you are thinking of selling your home you can visit http://www.tampabaydwellings.com and receive a free home market analysis.

Posted in: Real Estate News & Info Tagged: current housing market in tampa florida, How to Sell Your Home in a Down Market, real estate news, When is a good time to buy?

Post navigation

« How To Get The Best Price In A Slowing Market, Tampa Fl
Six Ten Franklin and Downtown Developments-Tampa, FL »

Search Our Blog

Search for:

Browse by Category

Browse by Topic

Best Neighborhoods in Tampa Best Places to buy a home buyers market tips Buying a Home buying real estate in tampa Channelside Condos For Sale Choosing the Right Realtor Condo Market News Condo Market Update Tampa current housing market in tampa florida Downtown Tampa Condos and Lofts Downtown Tampa Updates Financing and Mortgage News First Time Home Buyers First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit First Time Home Buying Advice Foreclosure Statistics Tampa FL Historical Neighborhoods-Tampa homestead tax exemption How to sell as short sale investing in condos Investing In Real Estate Luxury Home Communities new construction tampa property tax update Real Estate Investing Tampa real estate market tampa real estate news Relocating to Tampa sales statistics Selling Your Home Short Sale Process Tampa Short Sale Realtors Tampa South Tampa Real Estate Tampa Housing Market Tampa Real Estate Tampa Real Estate Market Tampa Real Estate News Tampa Realtors Tampa Relocation Guide Things to Do in Tampa Tips for Listing your home Tips for Sellers Top tampa realtors When is a good time to buy?

Explore Communities

  • Channelside District
  • Downtown Tampa
  • South Tampa
  • Seminole Heights | Tampa Heights
  • Gulf Beach Area | St. Petersburg | Clearwater
  • Westshore Marina District
  • Downtown St. Pete
  • Cheval Golf Community

Recent Posts

  • Pros and Cons For Investors Buying Rental Property-Tampa, Fl
    Pros and Cons For Investors Buying Rental Property-Tampa, Fl
    7 hours ago
  • Why Use a Buyer’s Real Estate Agent Instead of a Listing Agent? Tampa, Fl
    Why Use a Buyer’s Real Estate Agent Instead of a Listing Agent? Tampa, Fl
    2 days ago
  • Latest News from Florida Realtors
    Latest News from Florida Realtors
    3 days ago
  • Inventory May Never Be This Low Again | Tampa Housing Market 2020
    Inventory May Never Be This Low Again | Tampa Housing Market 2020
    4 days ago

Rae Anna Conforti

  • Call or Text Me

    (813) 784-7744

  • Send Me an Email

    Ready to Help

  • 1001 S. MacDill Ave

    Tampa, FL 33629

© 2021 Tampa Real Estate Insider | All Rights Reserved

Agent Reputation – Real Estate Website Design

Privacy Policy | DMCA | Sitemap